http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/357 Sun, 05 Apr 2026 18:51:36 GMT 2026-04-05T18:51:36Z http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/2218 ALTERNATIVE PUBLIC FINANCING OPTIONS, TAX AND ECONOMIC GROWTH NEXUS IN THREE SELECTED SUBSAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES, 1990-2016 ADEDEJI, Abdulfatai Adekunle The effectiveness of tax in inducing economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries remained unclear. Countries with comparable chequered economic growth rates had varying levels of Tax-to-GDP Ratios (TGDPRs). South Africa, Nigeria, and Republic of the Congo are three prominent SSA countries with unstable growth rates. With TGDPRs of 24.8% and 9.1%, respectively, South Africa and Republic of Congo experienced growth rates that rose from -0.3% and 1.0% in 1990 to 5.3% and 6.4% in 2005 before falling to 0.4% and -2.8% in 2016. Nigeria had a TGDPR of 7.6%, and its growth rate dropped from 11.8% in 1990 to 5.3% in 2005 and further to -1.6% in 2016. These countries also used Alternative Public Financing Options (APFOs) such as Public Debt (PD), seigniorage, and Total Natural Resource Rents (TNRR), which could shape the tax-growth nexus pattern. Existing studies had focused primarily on the tax-growth nexus in SSA but paid little attention to the influence of APFOs. This study was, therefore, designed to examine the effect of APFOs on tax-growth nexus in three selected SSA countries. The Endogenous Growth Theory provided the framework. A Two-Stage Least Squares method was deployed to address potential endogeneity issues among the variables. The method allowed for the interaction of APFOs in the tax-growth nexus, such that high PD accumulation could reduce tax revenue necessary to facilitate growth, and high reliance on seigniorage and TNRR could stifle tax mobilisation efforts and lead to low growth. A simulation was used to investigate how APFOs might affect the tax-growth nexus. The data which covered 1990 to 2016 were sourced from the World Development Indicators, International Centre for Tax and Development, and the Monetary Authorities database of the three countries. All estimates were validated at α≤0.05. Tax and PD interaction had significant negative effect on growth in South Africa (- 0.004, p=0.01), Nigeria (-0.002, p=0.01) and Republic of Congo (-0.002, p=0.01), suggesting that PD reduced the effectiveness of tax in financing growth. The interaction between tax and seigniorage had no discernible impact on growth in South Africa and Republic of Congo but had a significant negative effect on growth in Nigeria (-0.02, p=0.004), suggesting that seigniorage significantly reduced the effectiveness of tax in fostering economic growth in Nigeria. Tax and TNRR interaction significantly impacted growth in South Africa (-0.03, p=0.00) and Republic of Congo (-0.005, p=0.00), while it had negligible effect in Nigeria. The simulation results showed that a higher PD resulted in higher taxes and slower growth in the three countries. A higher seigniorage increased tax and growth in the three countries. A higher TNRR increased growth but lowered taxes in Nigeria and Republic of Congo but not in South Africa. The impact of taxes on economic growth was weakened by public debt, seigniorage, and total natural resource rents in sub-Saharan African countries. In order to encourage taxdriven economic growth across all countries, these Alternative Public Financing Options should be used with caution. Sat, 01 Jul 2023 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/2218 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/1649 Labour Productivity, Employment and Output Growth in Nigeria 1990 - 2018 FARAYIBI, Adesoji Oladapo Labour productivity growth remains an engine of output growth as it increases a country’s capacity to create better opportunities for decent and productive employment. However, the link among these macroeconomic variables in Nigeria remains unclear, as reflected in its economic growth pattern, which precludes an increase in employment. Labour productivity in Nigeria averaged N453.89 per hour during the 1990-2018 period. During the same period, output growth averaged 5.26%, while the unemployment rate remained high at an average of 22.45%. Few studies have carried out specific analyses on the variables but paid little attention to the link among them. This study, therefore, investigated the relationships among labour productivity (LP), employment (EMP), and output growth (YG) in Nigeria during 1990-2018. The causal relationship among the variables was tested using the Granger Causality test. The basic Cobb-Douglas production function, derived from the neo-classical growth theory, provided the framework. A Solow growth model that captured the relationship among total factor productivity, employment, and output growth was explored. The Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) approach was used. The model incorporated other variables such as labour force (LF), labour force participation rate (LFPR), population (POP), dependency ratio (DR), total hours worked (THW), and unemployment rate (UR). Data were collected from World Development Indicators Database and National Bureau of Statistics’ Annual Abstracts of Statistics. Three models (LP-YG, EMP-YG, and LP-EMP-YG) were estimated. Serial Correlation (S-C), Heteroskedasticity (H-T), and Stability Test (S-T) was carried out to ascertain the reliability of the estimates. All estimates were validated at α ≤ 0.05. A bi-directional causality existed between labour productivity and employment, indicating a feedback effect between the two variables, while no causality existed between labour productivity and output growth. The LP-YG model results showed that LP (0.65, 0.25) significantly increased YG in both the long and short run. In the EMP YG model, EMP (0.33, 0.69) had a positive and significant impact on YG both in the long and short run. Further, the LP-EMP-YG model results revealed that LP-EMP (0.55, 0.76) had a positive and significant net effect on YG in both the long and short run. The results of other variables considered depicted that LF (0.01, 0.05), LFPR (0.43, 0.79), THW (0.07, 0.66), DR (0.56, 0.85) and POP (0.43, 0.46) significantly boosted YG both in the long and short-run while UR (-0.26, -0.29) caused a decrease in YG in both long and short-run in Nigeria. The insignificant coefficients of S-C (0.57, p=0.70), H-T (0.77, p=0.80), and S-T of 5% were indicative of a good fit. There is no interdependence among labour productivity, employment, and output growth in Nigeria. Output growth that emanated from increase in labour productivity did not influence employment. Therefore, there is need for a policy that would allow labour productivity induced growth to boost employment generation in Nigeria. Sun, 01 Aug 2021 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/1649 2021-08-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/1024 DETERMINANTS OF FISCAL DISCIPLINE IN NIGERIA 1980-2015 PERIOLA, OLOLADE Fiscal Discipline (FD) is the ability of government to efficiently maintain smooth and long-term financial operations in relation to total revenue, financial balance, public debt and total spending. The growing fiscal deficit across countries and, the European sovereign debt crisis of 2010 underscored the need for FD. In Nigeria, the growing debt, unmanageable budget deficit, consistent imbalance in expenditure and revenue variance, and unnecessary delay in budget processes have made FD critical. However, little attention has been devoted to the identification of the determinants of FD in Nigeria. This study, therefore, examined the determinants of FD in Nigeria from 1980 to 2015. The Common pool resource theory provided the framework for the econometric model in the mould of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL). Data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria’s Statistical Bulletin, World Development Indicators, Quality of Governance Basic Data Set, and Approved Annual Budgets. The extent of FD was assessed using four complementary measures: Primary Balance (PB), Debt Sustainability (DS), Expenditure Variance (EV) and Revenue Variance (RV). The examined determinants of FD included spending units, capital inflows, government size, political regime, trade openness and transparency. The time-series properties of these variables were examined. The Bounds test approach and Error Correction Modeling technique were deployed for the long-run and short-run analyses, respectively. All estimates were validated at р≤0.05. The FD models, (except DS) exhibited a long-run path (PB, F-Stat. 29.4; EV, F-Stat.14.6; RV, F-Stat.55.0) in which spending units exerted significant influenceon the measures of FD. A percentage increase in spending units led to rise in PB (2.0%, t=4.77) and EV (0.4%, t=2.96) and decline in RV (2.6%, t=5.94). Similarly, a percentage increase in government size also led to rise in PB (23.5%, t=4.84) and EV (22.1%, t=3.61) and a fall in RV (52.7%, t=3.81). Conversely, trade openness reduced the PB (6.9%, t=3.27), while political regime (0.09, t=3.94) indicated that military regimes were more disciplined than democratic regimes. Capital inflows reduced EV (42.2%, t=3.92). The short-run estimates showed that a percentage increase in spending units deteriorated RV (1.6%, t=6.30), and increased the PB (1.3%, t=8.13) and EV (0.4%, t=2.11). In contrast, a percentage increase in capital inflows lowered the PB (26.1%, t=5.57) and EV (33.3%, t=3.39) and increased the RV (37.8%, t=5.99). A percentage increase in transparency lowered PB (0.4%, t=9.54) and EV (0.6%, t=5.14). Fiscal discipline was evidently lacking in Nigeria from 1980 to 2015, as primary balance, debt sustainability, expenditure variance and revenue variance indicated fiscal indiscipline. The indiscipline was essentially determined by spending units, government size, and regime type, as military regime was more discipline than democratic regimes. Therefore, there is the need to ensure fiscal discipline in fiscal operations accordingly. Mon, 01 Jul 2019 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/1024 2019-07-01T00:00:00Z http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/1022 HEALTH SHOCKS AND HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION SMOOTHING IN NIGERIA ONISANWA, IDOWU DANIEL Households experiencing health shocks (HS-death and disability) are at the risk of incurring substantial health expenditure as they seek treatment and experience loss of productive work hours, earnings, and declines in consumption. Coping with the economic consequences of HS and maintaining consumption in the absence of formal insurance, households respond with their own risk reduction, mitigation, and coping strategy (CS). However, not much is known either about the impact of HS on the variation of households‟ consumption (HC) or the capacity of existing risk sharing arrangements in smoothing consumption against HS in Nigeria. This study was therefore, designed to investigate the effect of HS on the HC, identify the strategies adopted by households to deal with HS and examine the effect of the most commonly used CS on consumption. The Full-Insurance theory provided the theoretical framework for the study. Data were obtained from two waves of the General Household Survey (GHS) panel, 2011 and 2013, produced by the National Bureau of Statistics. The GHS covered 5,000 households across the six geopolitical zones. Two measures of HS: death of a household member and disability that incapacitated a household member from carrying out normal activities of daily living were used. The HC was divided into food and non-food. A fixed effect model was estimated to examine the impact of HS on change in HC. Multinomial logit model was used to determine the CS used by households in the face of HS. The CSs were categorized into three groups: sales of assets; borrowings; and other-strategies. The effects of CS on consumption were computed by regressing the interaction term of predicted probability and measure of HS on household consumption. Estimates were validated at p  0.05 . The average household size was 7±4 persons, and the average age of household member was 27.0±20.0 years. Thirty-one percent of households were both male-headed and married. Twenty nine percent and Sixteen percent of sampled households reported disability and death respectively. Disability ( 4.18) t  and death ( 2.09) t  had a significant negative effect on food consumption. Disability decreased food consumption of households by 8.0%, while death reduced it by 23.0%. Disability ( 5.47) t  as well as death ( 3.48) t  of household member had significant negative impact on non-food consumption. Sales of assets and borrowing iii significantly affected the ability of households to maintain consumption with likelihood of 0.67 and 0.54, respectively. Sales of assets ( 6.10) t  and borrowing ( 2.9) t  had positive and significant impacts on consumption, while other-strategies ( 4.55) t  were negative and significant. Health shocks reduced household consumption in Nigeria. Sales of assets and borrowing were the most prominent coping strategies. Emphasis on measures geared towards providing financial protection against health shocks such as payment of disability benefits and assistance to households that report death should be intensified by the government. Sun, 01 Apr 2018 00:00:00 GMT http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/1022 2018-04-01T00:00:00Z